Barack Obama still has a lot to do
奥巴马仍然有许多工作要做

ON AUGUST 28th, barring some dark manoeuvre by seething Clintonistas, Barack Obama will accept the Democratic nomination for the presidency. Forty-five years to the day after Martin Luther King spoke of his dream, America will take a giant leap towards the realisation of that great call for justice. Hundreds of millions will watch, and be moved; Mr Obama seems to many, by reason of his race, his calm intelligence, his youthful good looks and his powerful oratorical skills, to be well suited to draw a line beneath the bitter Bush years and to repair America’s torn relationship with the outside world. One prominent pundit was much derided earlier this year for describing the tingle he got from listening to the candidate-but everyone knew exactly what he meant.
除非一些克林顿主义者暗中下绊,巴拉克奥巴马仍然会于8月28日接受民主党内的总统候选人提名。在马丁路德金发表关于梦想的演讲45年后的今天,美国向着他所呼唤的正义的方向又迈进了一大步。数百万人会目睹这一时候, 也一定会深深地受到震动.因为其自身的种族,冷静的智慧,年轻俊朗的外表,强有力的演说技巧,对于很多人来说,奥巴马是与辛酸的布什时代划清界线,修复美国与外部世界裂痕的合适人选。今年早些时候,某位著名专家说他听候选人演讲时的感受到某种刺痛感,他本人因此深受嘲笑–但所有人都知道他到底想说什么。
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Will America follow Japan into a decade of stagnation?
美国是否会步日本后尘，进入十年停滞？

AS FALLING house prices and tightening credit squeeze America’s economy, some worry that the country may suffer a decade of stagnation, as Japan did after its bubble burst in the early 1990s. Japan’s property bubble was also fuelled by cheap money and financial liberalisation and-just as in America-most people assumed that property prices could not fall nationally. When they did, borrowers defaulted and banks cut their lending. The result was a decade with average growth of less than 1%.
随着美国国内房价的下跌和信贷紧缩的持续加强，一些人开始担心美国可能经历像日本上个世纪90年代早期经济泡沫破灭后那样的十年滞胀。低息贷款和金融自由化加速了日本资产泡沫化，就像现在的美国，大部分人都认为房地产价格不会出现全国性下跌。然而当它发生时，借债人逃债，银行断供。结果就是十年平均不到1%的经济增长率。

Most dismiss the idea that America could suffer the same fate as Japan, but some of the differences are overstated. For example, some claim that Japan’s bubble was much bigger than America’s. Yet average house prices nationwide rose by 90% in America between 2000 and 2006, compared with a gain of 51% in Japan between 1985 and early 1991, when Japanese home prices peaked (see left-hand chart). Prices in Japan’s biggest cities rose faster, but nationwide figures matter more when gauging the impact on the economy. Japanese home prices have since fallen by just over 40%. American prices are already down by 20%, and many economists reckon they could fall by another 10% or more.
大部分人都不太在意这样的观点：美国可能经历像日本一样的命运，但是一些区别被夸大了。例如，一些人认为日本的泡沫要比美国的大很多。然而，从2000年到2006年，全美房屋价格上涨了90%，而日本房价从85年开始到91年初达到顶峰，六年间只上涨了51%（如左表）。日本那些大城市的房价上涨要更快，但是对测定房价对经济影响更重要的则是全国的房价数据。日本房价从高点下落以来跌去仅 40%多，而美国房价已经下跌了20%，并且很多经济学家预计房价还会跌去10%或者更多。

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